Like most in our community, I paid attention to our municipal debates. I’ve read the platforms of the candidates. While a lot of great things were discussed, I kept waiting for food security to get the airtime it deserves.  

Only a few nominees even included rising usage at our food backs as a platform issue. This concerns me.  Over the last two years, I have been speaking at every event that will have me on the importance of “community supporting community” when it comes to addressing food security, because I felt this was a very serious issue for smaller communities. 

On June 11, 2026, the federal government rolled out its National Food Security Strategy: alongside defense and the economy, food shortages are one of the top issues our country faces.  

To put things into perspective, since Covid, Canadian grocery bills have increased by over 30 percent, according to the Bank of Canada. This number means 1 in 4 families are unable to afford a balanced diet, one that includes fresh fruit and vegetables.  

Meanwhile, a federal thinktank, Value Chain Management, predicts that number could soon be closer to 1 in 3 in smaller communities like ours. Basically, it costs more to eat healthily. That means those of us on a smaller budget must choose less nutritious options when it comes to feeding their families.  

In many cases, higher prices are also forcing families to the local food banks. Staff at both the Wellington Storehouse and Picton United Church Foodbank report seeing more clients week after week after week with no apparent slowdown.   

Unfortunately, things are about to get even worse

2026 has seen key increases in very specific areas when it comes to food. Taken together, they mean that in 2027 food prices are expected to increase 6.5 percent, according to the Institute of Global Distribution (IDG). Here are those problem areas:

We know that fuel costs are up at the pumps, but did you realize that diesel has gone up 75 percent since last August? (Canadian Press, Oct. 9, 2026). 

These rising costs are hitting our farmers as they bring in the harvest. They are also increasing shipping costs just as Canadian food imports ramp up over the winter months.  

Right now, it is somewhat cost effective for grocery stores to import from Canadian farmers and have more Grown in Canada products on the shelves; we are coming out of the growing season and there is food available. This has slightly tempered the food price increases now being reported around the world. 

In the winter, however, we import large quantities of food from warmer countries.  

The further food must travel, the more is paid on fuel. That means the prices we are seeing right now are the cheapest we will see for the next six months. And quite possibly much longer. 

That is, we know winter food costs will be more because we ship in the product, but did you know that the prices you see at the stores today may be the cheapest you will see for the rest of your life?

Aside from rising fuel costs, farmers are also now dealing with rising fertilizer costs. Right now, 20 percent of the global oil supply comes through the Strait of Hormuz. 

This is why the fuel costs are high. About 29 percent of urea, the world’s most used nitrogen fertilizer, also comes through the same channel. 

In addition to fuel and the fertilizer, half of the world’s sulphur supply also comes from the middle east. All three of these inputs are used by Canadian farmers to grow food. (S&P Global Institute, Oct 19, 2026). A study done by FarmWeekNow (Oct 15, 2026) estimates that fertilizer prices are already up 20 percent over 2025. They are expected to rise even more due to the prolonged war in Iran.  

As a result, farmers are moving away from crops, such as wheat and corn, that require high fertilizers. Instead, they are growing more soy and canola, neither of which are high-yield food crops. Ultimately, fewer farmers grew food in 2026.

Now comes the real fun.

Globally we are about to enter into the largest food shortages we have ever seen. The UN World Food Program predicts an additional 49 million people will face severe hunger. That will take the global total to 274 million across 45 nations. 

How does this affect us? Canada imports 75 percent of its fresh fruit and 50 percent of its fresh vegetables. The demand on the global supply chain will continue to increase because more people are going hungry. 

Food production has also been affected by weather in 2026, with declines posted globally, including: Australian wheat, Brazilian Corn, India’s Rabi wheat crop, Ukrainian Wheat, and Thailand Rice (S&P Global Agriculture, Oct 19, 2026).

So, less food available, more mouths to feed, and rising costs to produce it are why food inflation is now at 22 percent globally, according to the World Bank (Oct 19, 2026).

Food is a pressing municipal issue. We are naive if we stand by and wait for aid. We have hit the point where every level of government needs to start looking at ways to help those most at risk. From investing in our food banks to feeding children in schools, food security will be as important as water and infrastructure in the coming year.  

Remember, this issue affects all of us. We need to remove the stigma of asking for help by stepping up and providing the support our community needs BEFORE more of our neighbours become food insecure.