A recent population forecast for Prince Edward County argues that the time has come to stop planning for growth and start planning for something it calls “sustainability,” or, more aptly, preservation. 

With one of Ontario’s oldest populations, the County is not naturally self-sustaining, meaning through birth rates. Sustaining or preserving its quality of life can only come from people choosing to move here. 

I have served as CEO for the Quinte Home Builders’ Association since 2015, when I moved to the region from the GTA with my young family. Residential construction is one of the region’s largest economic drivers, supporting local builders, developers, renovators, and the skilled trades, as well as suppliers, manufacturers, and the financial and insurance sectors.

Our members create jobs, invest in local businesses, generate municipal tax revenue and build the communities that mean healthcare workers, teachers, tradespeople, entrepreneurs and young families can live and work here.

I see the consequences of the housing shortage every single day. For us, it is not an abstract policy discussion; local employers unable to hire skilled tradespeople because those workers cannot find housing here is a Monday morning reality. 

It is easy to interpret people not coming here as people not wanting to come here. But nothing could be further from the truth. The University of Ottawa’s Missing Middle Initiative, which seeks to restore Canada’s urban middle class, reaches a different conclusion. If population growth depends on intra-provincial migration, people choosing to move here from elsewhere in Ontario, that means there must be houses to move into.

Having the houses ready depends on choices the County makes today.

Growth is not a matter of passively accepting a forecast. It is something a county either enables or constrains.  If it builds the infrastructure, makes way for new housing, and creates opportunities for people to live and work here, the County has every reason to attract more families and working-age residents. If it does not, those families, workers and employers will simply go elsewhere.

That matters, because the costs the County faces do not disappear if growth slows. Roads still need rebuilding. Bridges need restoring. Water and wastewater infrastructure must still be renewed. The hospital and long-term care facility still need investment and workers. Those costs will come regardless of whether the County grows by 1 percent a year or 5 percent. They are fixed costs.

The difference is who pays for them.

A growing community spreads those investments across a larger tax base. A community with a shrinking proportion of working-age residents — what the County is now — places the financial pressure on its seniors. It has no other choice.

Perhaps the greatest weakness in the argument for planning for less is that it treats today’s demographic profile as though it should be permanent. It should not. An aging demographic is not a self-renewing population. Communities renew and sustain themselves by attracting the next generation. Young families. Healthcare professionals. Teachers. Skilled tradespeople. Entrepreneurs. The workers and families who keep schools, hospitals, restaurants, farms and businesses running.

Housing is economic infrastructure. Without it, employers struggle to recruit workers. Young adults leave. Schools close. The tax base shrinks. Over time, fewer working-age residents are available to support the very services an aging population depends on.

There are two clocks running. The first clock is fast.

Today may be one of the most affordable opportunities in years to purchase a newly built home. HST relief has reduced the cost, while a slower construction market means there are more tradespeople available and construction costs are lower.

At the same time, both the provincial and federal governments are investing billions in housing-enabling infrastructure through time-limited funding programs. They won’t last forever. This is the moment to build.

The second clock moves much more slowly. It requires us to think ahead.

Water and wastewater capacity and rates studies. Engineering master plans. Road and bridge rehabilitation. Development charges studies. Official Plans. Secondary Plans.  Development is not a one-year project. It requires years of long-term thinking.

By the time the demand is here, it is too late to begin to think about it. If the County waits for growth to arrive before planning for it, that growth will go elsewhere. That is why long-term infrastructure planning matters so much. 

On the other hand, developers firmly believe that if you build it, they will come. That does not just mean houses. It means the infrastructure to support them. This is not simply an opinion from the residential construction industry. The same principle is identified by the Missing Middle Initiative: communities that invest in the infrastructure and housing needed to accommodate new residents are the communities that attract them.

Growth does not just happen. It is shaped by the choices municipalities make over time.

Belleville is a good example. Belleville grew at roughly 1.9 percent a year between 2016 and 2021, well ahead of Ontario’s average growth rate of 1.1 percent. That did not happen by accident. Years earlier, it decided to invest in the infrastructure necessary to support future residents and employers. 

It worked with the QHBA and the development industry to shape policies that would lead to development. Those far-seeing planning decisions positioned Belleville to accommodate growth when it arrived. It has since exceeded its provincial housing targets and won $1.24 million from the province’s Building Faster Fund. It expects roughly 75,200 new residents and to create 41,000 jobs by 2051.

Belleville faces many of the same demographic realities as Prince Edward County. It sits in the same region, draws from the same labour pool and operates with many of the same constraints. The difference in growth rates is not demographics. It is planning. Belleville decided years ago it was going to be a place people could move to and it invested in the infrastructure, policies and partnerships needed to make that possible.

The County now faces the same choice: not development or preservation, but preservation through development. The choice is whether it will have the homes, infrastructure, workforce, and tax base necessary to support future generations while preserving the character that makes it so unique. Or not. If it chooses not, it will continue a long, slow decline. An aging population, an outflux of its young people, and nowhere for new residents to live.

Responsible growth and responsible stewardship are not competing objectives. They are complementary.

The question facing the County is not, “How fast will we grow?” It is, “How fast do we want to grow?”

Some of the current window of opportunity closes quickly: when the current HST relief expires, and Ontario and Canada’s building programs wind down.

The rest closes much more quietly, one deferred infrastructure study, one delayed servicing project, and one missed funding opportunity at a time.

Ruth Estwick is CEO of Quinte Home Builders’ Association