It’s a tough market.

On the one hand, prices have fallen. On the other, few can take advantage of what might be called an opportunity, as interest rates are so high.

Would-be buyers cannot buy. Sellers cannot sell.

At the peak of the pandemic, February 2022, single family houses in PEC hit a median price of 996k. They now sit closer to 600k.

As Century 21’s Ned Burgess notes, “prices have been drifting downward since they peaked in February 2022. As rates rise, though, they have fallen more sharply.”

If only there were buyers.

A mortgage for a first, never mind second, property is very hard to get. Buyers must qualify under the higher of either a rate of 5.25 per cent, or the interest rate negotiated with a lender — plus 2 per cent.

A quick check on a mortgage calculator will stop most in their tracks.

As an experiment, I entered the average price of a house in PEC, 600k, into TDs mortgage calculator. Even with a 20 per cent down payment ($160k), I had to keep upping my imaginary household income to reach the cut off for a mortgage. The red “declined” button did not go away until I earned $140k.

That certainly puts a damper on things.

At the same time, the number of new listings is unprecedented: close to 150 new listings have come on the market for three months in a row. With high rates holding buyers back, that creates a lot of inventory.

There are currently about 450 single freehold houses available for sale.

“That number is unheard off,” said County Real Estate Company’s Stephanie Sokolowski.

“Just for context, I did a routine search about this time in 2021 and came up with 37 houses. That was the norm.”

Who are all these sellers?

There are a number of different groups. Investors, particularly STA owners, are getting out of the market here as interest rates destroy profit margins — or make it impossible to meet mortgage payments.

Some STA owners are discovering the delights of running a vacation rental begin to pall after a year or two. Difficulties finding cleaners, combined with endless rotation of guests, are not easy to manage — particularly if the owner lives elsewhere.

A few people who bought during the pandemic have had a change of heart —but agents say that is not the norm.

“Most people who bought during the pandemic are here to stay,” notes Ms. Sokolowki. “They came because the cities are unaffordable, and because they wanted what was on offer here.” Many are working remotely, with no pressing need to leave, and many brought families with them.

Some of the sellers are retired downsizers, moving from the country to apartments and condos in town.

In some cases, however, high rates alone are forcing sales. Some of those trying to sell are facing a very tough situation.

“We do anticipate an increased interest in the market, because it is fall, and the market is seasonal,” notes Mr. Burgess. “The more affordable properties are still selling,” he notes, “but nothing is going to change much unless rates come down.”

It’s not all doom and gloom though. There is still lots of interest in Prince Edward County. Local agents are in constant contact with downsizers coming from the city, often retirees, but, increasingly, families and remote workers also now want to call the County home.

Real estate prices are still very high in Toronto, encouraging fed up city dwellers to consider their options.

“Prices coming down will always attract people waiting for an opening,” says Royal LePage’s Elizabeth Crombie. “The County will always be an attractive place to live. It has its own value, and that does not change with the ups and downs of the market.”

Ms. Crombie notes that prices are down about 25% from 2021, a year agents find offers a realistic benchmark.

“The opportunities are there,” she says confidently.

Ms. Crombie notes buyers have been waiting, unsure of the right time to act, and able to take their time, with so many properties available.

“There are a lot of properties on the market now – people are on pause, just looking, not buying. Even for less expensive properties, they are worried they will pay too much, that the market has further to fall,” notes Ms. Crombie.